8. 개선된 인플레이션 전망을 반영하여 '24년 말까지 금리의 목표 범위를 낮추는 것이 적절할 것
[전문]
Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations
The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. Finan-cial conditions eased, driven by a decline in interest rates, an increase in equity prices, and a depreciation in the dol-lar. The rise in equity prices was supported by the de-cline in Treasury yields and by earnings growth that ex-ceeded consensus expectations. Implied volatility for equities diminished notably. The easing in financial con-ditions reversed some of the tightening that occurred over the summer and much of the fall.
Yields on nominal Treasury securities declined sharply over the intermeeting period- more so at longer matur-ities—after having increased notably during the previous intermeeting period, as investors appeared to interpret incoming data as reducing risks of prolonged inflation pressures. In addition, market participants interpreted communications from FOMC participants as solidifying the view that the Committee’s policy rate may be at its peak. Early in the period, the market also reacted to communications from the Treasury Department indicat-ing that issuance of Treasury securities was likely to be more skewed toward shorter-dated maturities than pre-viously expected. Models, on average, suggested that about two-thirds of the decline in longer-term yields on Treasury securities over the period was attributable to a reduction in term premiums and about one-third to a decline in expectations for the policy rate. Pricing of in-flation derivatives over the intermeeting period sug-gested that investors had become more optimistic about the near-term outlook for inflation.
The manager turned next to expectations for monetary policy. Respondents to the Open Market Desk’s Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants largely converged around the view that the peak level of the federal funds rate for this tightening cycle had been reached. The modal path from the Desk surveys sug-gested that the first reduction in the policy rate would occur in June, unchanged from the October surveys. The average path for the policy rate implied by market pricing shifted down considerably over the period.
Regarding developments in money markets and Desk operations, usage of the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility continued to fall over the period; take-up at the facility had dropped about $1.3 trillion since early June. The decline was again driven primarily by lower participation by money market mutual funds, as such funds found it more attractive to invest in Treasury bills and, increasingly, the private mar-ket for repurchase agreement (repo) transactions.
Overnight repo rates continued to experience some modest upward pressure over the period. As reflected by a rise in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, there was some tightening of conditions in repo markets in late November and early December in response to typi-cal lending dynamics around month-end, the settlement of a large amount of Treasury issuance, and increased demand for Treasury financing. The market absorbed this episode well.
The manager expected that private-market repo rates would likely remain above the rate offered at the ON RRP facility, which should continue to induce a re-duction in usage of the facility. Respondents to the Desk surveys again reduced their expectations for the trajec-tory for ON RRP balances and correspondingly raised their expectations for the trajectory of reserve balances. Aggregate reserves across the banking system remained abundant, and no signs of pressures were evident. As part of their ongoing market surveillance, the staff will continue to monitor a wide range of indicators of money market conditions, including the composition of bor-rowers in money markets, borrowing demand for vari-ous sources of liquidity, the distribution of reserve bal-ances across the financial system, the pricing of money market investments relative to the Federal Reserve’s ad-ministered rates, and the sensitivity of money market rates to changes in aggregate reserves.
By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk’s domestic transactions over the intermeeting period. There were no intervention operations in foreign curren-cies for the System’s account during the intermeeting pe-riod.
Staff Review of the Economic Situation
The data available at the time of the December 12–13 meeting suggested that growth in U.S. real gross domes-tic product (GDP) was slowing from its strong third-quarter pace. Labor market conditions continued to be tight, with moderating but still-strong job gains and a low unemployment rate. Consumer price inflation had eased over the past year but remained elevated.
Labor demand and supply continued to move gradually into better alignment. Total nonfarm payroll employ-ment expanded at a slower pace, on balance, over Octo-ber and November than its average monthly rate in the third quarter. The unemployment rate was little changed, on net, and stood at 3.7 percent in November, the same as its third-quarter average. The labor force participation rate was essentially flat over the past two months, remaining above its level early in the year, while the employment-to-population ratio rose slightly on bal-ance. The unemployment rates for African Americans and for Hispanics were little changed, and both rates were higher than those for Asians and for Whites. The job openings rate continued to trend down, and the quits rate was flat; both rates were below their levels earlier this year. The lessening of labor market imbalances was apparent in recent wage data, as the 12-month change in average hourly earnings for all employees was well below its year-earlier level and the Wage Growth Tracker con-structed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta was trending down and lower than a year ago.
Consumer price inflation remained elevated but contin-ued to show notable signs of easing. The price index for total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in-creased 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending in Octo-ber, while core PCE inflation—which excludes changes in energy prices and many consumer food prices—was 3.5 percent over the same period; both total and core PCE inflation were well below their year-earlier levels. The six-month change measures of total and core PCE inflation in October were each 2.5 percent, down from their levels six months earlier. The trimmed mean meas-ure of 12-month PCE inflation constructed by the Fed-eral Reserve Bank of Dallas was 3.6 percent in October, also down from its level a year ago. In November, the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) was 3.1 percent, core CPI rose 4.0 percent over the same pe-riod, and both measures were well below their year-ear-lier levels. Recent survey measures of medium- to longer-term inflation expectations were in the range seen in the decade before the pandemic. In contrast, survey measures of consumers’ short-run inflation expectations remained above their pre-pandemic levels.
Available indicators suggested that real GDP growth was slowing from its strong third-quarter pace, which had been led by a sizable increase in consumer spending. In October, PCE growth slowed from its average monthly rate in the third quarter. As for business invest-ment, nominal shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were essentially flat in October, al-though nonresidential construction spending by busi-nesses edged up. Residential housing starts moved mostly sideways, and home sales continued to fall. Man-ufacturing production declined in October, and factory output was weak, even after excluding the decrease in motor vehicle assemblies caused by the autoworkers’ strike. The nominal trade deficit widened in October, as exports declined and imports rose slightly.
Foreign economic growth slowed in the third quarter, and available indicators pointed to subdued growth in the fourth quarter. The significant tightening of mone-tary policy by foreign central banks over the past two years and the repercussions of last year’s energy shock in Europe continued to weigh on foreign economic activ-ity. Chinese economic indicators, such as retail sales and industrial production, pointed to economic growth re-maining modest. By contrast, economic activity in Asia excluding China stepped up, supported in part by a re-covery in industrial production, especially in the high-tech sector.
While inflation was still elevated in most major econo-mies, incoming data indicated that it had moved down markedly. These decreases reflected notable step-downs in both energy and core inflation amid slowing aggregate demand and declines in oil prices. Most major foreign central banks kept their policy rates unchanged over the intermeeting period and emphasized the need to main-tain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy to ensure that inflation fell back to their targets.
Staff Review of the Financial Situation
Over the intermeeting period, some softer-than-ex-pected data releases appeared to lessen the perception among investors that policy may need to tighten further in order to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time. Market participants also viewed monetary policy com-munications, on balance, as pointing to somewhat less restrictive policy than expected. As a result, nominal Treasury yields declined significantly and the expected market-implied path for the federal funds rate beyond the next few months shifted downward. Meanwhile, broad equity price indexes were boosted by many of the same factors that lowered Treasury yields, and spreads on investment- and speculative-grade corporate bonds narrowed. Financing conditions remained moderately restrictive, as borrowing costs remained elevated despite declining over the intermeeting period.
The market-implied path for the federal funds rate be-yond the next few months moved down notably over the intermeeting period. A straight read of federal funds fu-tures rates suggested that market participants expected the federal funds rate to be 25 basis points below its cur-rent level by the May 2024 FOMC meeting, two meet-ings earlier than at the time of the October–November FOMC meeting. The policy rate path implied by over-night index swap quotes moved down 45 basis points to 4.2 percent by the end of 2024. Similarly, nominal Treas-ury yields declined significantly. The decline in nominal yields mostly reflected a decrease in real yields, while measures of inflation compensation were moderately lower, on net, amid softer-than-expected data releases. Measures of uncertainty about the path of interest rates decreased notably, consistent with the tempering of con-cerns about inflation, but remained elevated by historical standards.
Broad stock price indexes increased markedly over the intermeeting period, and spreads on investment-grade bonds narrowed moderately, while those on speculative-grade corporate bonds declined more notably. The one-month option-implied volatility on the S&P 500 de-creased moderately and reached its lowest level since January 2020.
Spillovers from falling U.S. yields, below-expectations readings on global inflation, and oil price drops led to large declines in foreign yields. These declines were ac-companied by an improvement in market sentiment, with foreign equity prices increasing, foreign credit spreads narrowing, and outflows from funds investing in emerging market economies slowing notably. The im-provement in sentiment and declines in U.S. yields con-tributed to a broad depreciation of the foreign exchange value of the dollar.
Conditions in U.S. short-term funding markets remained largely stable over the intermeeting period. Usage of the ON RRP facility continued to decline over the period. The decline in usage primarily reflected money market mutual funds reallocating their assets to Treasury bills and private-market repo, which offered slightly more at-tractive market rates relative to the ON RRP rate amid continued increases in net Treasury bill issuance and Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction. Banks’ total deposit levels were roughly unchanged over the inter-meeting period, as outflows of core deposits were about offset by inflows of large time deposits.
In domestic credit markets, borrowing costs for most businesses, households, and municipalities declined over the intermeeting period, reflecting both lower longer-maturity Treasury yields and narrower credit spreads, al-though borrowing costs remained significantly elevated. Rates on loans to households, including those for 30-year conforming residential mortgages and new auto loans, declined over the intermeeting period, while inter-est rates on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans and small business loans were little changed. Yields on cor-porate bonds fell more than Treasury yields, particularly for speculative-grade bonds.
Bank credit conditions appeared to tighten somewhat over the intermeeting period, but credit to businesses and households generally remained accessible. C&I loan balances contracted through November, on balance, while expansion of commercial real estate (CRE) loans stepped down appreciably across most categories from an already moderating pace in the third quarter.
Credit remained available for most consumers, although consumer credit flows softened in recent months. Growth of credit card balances moderated significantly through November from the brisk pace seen in the sum-mer. For residential real estate borrowers, credit availa-bility was little changed. Credit conditions for small businesses appeared to have tightened further in recent months. Data from the Federal Reserve’s Small Busi-ness Lending Survey showed that originations had been roughly flat since mid-2022 before ticking down in the third quarter. Credit continued to be generally accessible through capital markets, although issuance was slow in many markets, including those for corporate bonds, lev-eraged loans, and agency and non-agency commercial mortgage-based securities (CMBS).
Credit quality remained broadly solid but deteriorated further for some sectors in recent months. Delinquency rates on nonfarm nonresidential CRE bank loans rose further in the third quarter, and delinquency rates for construction and land development as well as multifam-ily loans ticked up. After increases over the first three quarters of the year, delinquency rates for loans in CMBS pools edged lower in October, but the large volume of loans scheduled to mature over the next few quarters suggested that delinquencies would likely surge again. The delinquency rate for small business loans continued to tick up in September and was above levels observed just before the pandemic. Credit card delinquency rates also increased further, while delinquency rates on auto loans were little changed in the third quarter. The trail-ing default rates for investment- and speculative-grade corporate bonds were little changed on net, and the trailing default rate for leveraged loans increased a bit.
Staff Economic Outlook
The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the December meeting was broadly similar to the projection for the previous meeting. The staff continued to expect that GDP growth would slow markedly in the fourth quarter from its outsized third-quarter rate but that economic growth for 2023 as a whole would still be solid. The lagged effects of earlier monetary policy actions, through their contributions to continued tight financial and credit conditions, were expected to show through more fully in restraining economic activity in the coming years. Real GDP was projected to increase more slowly than the staff’s estimate of potential over the next two years be-fore rising in line with potential in 2026. The unemploy-ment rate was expected to be roughly flat through 2026 as the effects of below-potential output growth were off-set by the effects of further improvements in labor mar-ket functioning.
The staff revised down their inflation forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected incoming data—including the November CPI and producer price index—and their judg-ment that inflation would be less persistent than in the previous projection. Measured on a four-quarter change basis, total PCE price inflation was expected to be some-what below 3 percent this year, with core PCE price in-flation somewhat above 3 percent. Inflation was pro-jected to move lower in coming years as demand and supply in product and labor markets moved into better alignment; by 2026, total and core PCE price inflation were expected to be close to 2 percent.
The staff continued to view uncertainty around the baseline projection as elevated, although they observed that the volatility of incoming data and staff forecast errors generally had become less pronounced over the past year. Risks around the inflation forecast were seen as skewed to the upside, given that inflation was still ele-vated and the possibility that inflation might prove to be more persistent than expected or that adverse shocks to supply conditions might occur. The risks around the forecast for economic activity were viewed to be tilted to the downside. In particular, the additional monetary policy tightening that could be put in place if upside in-flation risks were to materialize, with the potential for a greater tightening of financial conditions, represented a downside risk to the projection for economic activity.
Participants’ Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook
In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2023 through 2026 and over the longer run. The projections were based on their individ-ual assessments of appropriate monetary policy, includ-ing the path of the federal funds rate. The longer-run projections represented each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. A Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) was released to the public following the conclusion of the meeting.
In their discussion of current economic conditions, par-ticipants observed that after stronger than expected growth of real GDP in the third quarter, recent indica-tors suggested that growth in economic activity had slowed. While still strong, job gains had moderated since earlier this year, and the unemployment rate had remained low. Participants observed that inflation had eased over the past year but remained elevated and above the Committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent.
Regarding the economic outlook, participants generally judged that, in 2024, real GDP growth would cool and that rebalancing of the labor market would continue, with the unemployment rate rising somewhat from its current level. Based on better-than-expected data on in-flation, participants revised down their inflation projections for 2023 and, to a lesser extent, in subsequent years. Participants judged that the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and appeared to be re-straining economic activity and inflation. In light of the policy restraint in place, along with more favorable data on inflation, participants generally viewed risks to infla-tion and employment as moving toward greater balance. However, participants remained highly attentive to infla-tion risks.
In their discussion of inflation, all participants observed that clear progress had been made in 2023 toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective. They remained concerned that elevated inflation continued to harm households, especially those with limited means to absorb higher prices. Participants observed that infla-tion remained above the Committee’s objective and that they would need to see more evidence that inflation pressures were abating to become confident in a sus-tained return of inflation to 2 percent.
In reviewing progress to date in reducing inflation, par-ticipants noted the improvement in both headline and core inflation and discussed the developments in com-ponents of these aggregate measures. They observed that progress had been uneven across components, with energy and core goods prices falling or changing little recently, but core services prices still increasing at an el-evated pace. Several participants observed that the on-going rebalancing of labor supply and demand would help reduce core services inflation. Several participants assessed that housing services inflation would fall fur-ther over time as the earlier deceleration in rents on new leases continued to pass through to broader rent measures. Participants also discussed the role played by various supply and demand factors in the progress on reducing inflation thus far. They assessed that the con-tribution of improved supply had come from supply chain normalization, boosts to labor supply due to a higher labor force participation rate and immigration, better productivity growth, or increased domestic oil production. They also noted that restrictive monetary policy had helped restrain growth of demand, particu-larly in interest-sensitive sectors such as business fixed investment, housing, and autos and other durable goods. Several participants assessed that healing in supply chains and labor supply was largely complete, and there-fore that continued progress in reducing inflation may need to come mainly from further softening in product and labor demand, with restrictive monetary policy continuing to play a central role. A few others saw potential for further improvements in supply. Several participants noted that longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored and that near-term inflation expectations of households had declined recently.
In their comments about the household sector, participants observed that consumer spending had been strong, supported by the healthy balance sheets of many households, a strong labor market, and robust income growth. Retail sales growth had stepped down noticea-bly in October, though a few participants remarked that contacts reported strong sales in November, notably re-lated to holiday spending. Participants mentioned sev-eral factors that may contribute to softer consumer spending, including slower growth of labor income and diminishing pandemic-related excess savings. Relatedly, many participants noted increased usage of credit by households, including from credit cards, buy-now-pay-later borrowing, and payday loans, as well as increased delinquency rates for many types of consumer loans.
Reports from participants’ business-sector contacts were mixed, with some contacts remaining relatively optimistic and others expecting slower growth for 2024. Several participants observed that higher interest rates were leading firms to reassess future projects and were con-tributing to softer business investment and hiring. A couple of participants commented on small businesses, noting that such businesses were experiencing tighter credit conditions and increasing delinquencies. A few participants noted that contacts in manufacturing re-ported slowing growth, while a couple of participants ex-pected that low prices for some commodities and drought conditions would reduce agricultural incomes this year. Regarding concerns about CRE, several par-ticipants noted that a significant share of properties would need to be refinanced in 2024 against a backdrop of higher interest rates, continued weakness in the office sector, and balance sheet pressures faced by some lend-ers.
Participants assessed that while the labor market remained tight, it continued to come into better balance. Many noted that nominal wage growth had continued to slow broadly and that business contacts expected a fur-ther reduction in wage growth. A few participants ob-served that payroll growth had slowed substantially since the beginning of the year. Some participants remarked that their contacts reported larger applicant pools for va-cancies, and some participants highlighted that the ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers had declined to a value only modestly above its level just before the pan-demic. Participants viewed improvements in labor sup-ply and the easing of labor demand as both having con-tributed to the labor market coming into better balance. Supply had improved because of higher labor force par-ticipation and immigration, with continued solid produc-tivity growth also supporting the productive capacity of the economy. As evidence for the softening of the growth of labor demand during 2023, many participants noted the decline in job openings, and a few remarked on the lower quits rate. Several participants noted the risk that, if labor demand were to weaken substantially further, the labor market could transition quickly from a gradual easing to a more abrupt downshift in conditions.
Participants generally perceived a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. As an upside risk to both inflation and economic activity, participants noted that the momentum of economic activity may be stronger than currently assessed, possibly on account of the continued balance sheet strength of many house-holds. Furthermore, participants observed that, after a sharp tightening since the summer, financial conditions had eased over the intermeeting period. Many partici-pants remarked that an easing in financial conditions be-yond what is appropriate could make it more difficult for the Committee to reach its inflation goal. Participants also noted other sources of upside risks to inflation, in-cluding possible effects on global energy and food prices of geopolitical developments, a potential rebound in core goods prices following the period of supply chain improvements, or the effects of nearshoring and on-shoring activities on labor demand and inflation. Down-side risks to economic activity noted by participants in-cluded the possibility that effects of past policy tighten-ing may be larger than expected, the risk of a marked weakening of household balance sheets, possible nega-tive spillovers from lower growth in some foreign econ-omies, geopolitical risks, and lingering risks of further tightening in bank credit. Relatedly, several participants noted that the weakness in gross domestic income growth relative to GDP growth over the past few quarters may suggest that economic momentum during that period was not as strong as indicated by the GDP readings.
In their consideration of appropriate monetary policy actions at this meeting, participants noted that recent indi-cators suggested that growth of economic activity had slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains had moderated since earlier in the year but re-mained strong, the unemployment rate had remained low, and there were continuing signs that supply and de-mand in the labor market were coming into better bal-ance. Inflation had eased over the past year but re-mained elevated. Participants also noted that tighter fi-nancial and credit conditions facing households and businesses would likely weigh on economic activity, hir-ing, and inflation, although the extent of these effects remained uncertain. Participants continued to be resolute in their commitment to bring inflation down to the Committee’s 2 percent objective.
In light of current economic conditions and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and infla-tion, as well as the balance of risks, all participants judged it appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5¼ to 5½ percent at this meeting. All par-ticipants also agreed that it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings, as described in the previously announced Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet.
Participants assessed that maintaining the current policy stance was supported by intermeeting data indicating that inflation had continued to move toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective and that the labor market had continued to move into better balance. They judged that maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting would promote further progress to-ward the Committee’s goals and allow participants more time to gather additional information to evaluate this progress.
In discussing the policy outlook, participants viewed the policy rate as likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle, though they noted that the actual policy path will depend on how the economy evolves. Participants pointed to the decline in inflation seen during 2023, not-ing the recent shift down in six-month inflation readings in particular, and to growing signs of demand and supply coming into better balance in product and labor markets as informing that view. Several participants remarked that the Committee’s past policy actions were having their intended effect of helping to slow the growth of aggregate demand and cool labor market conditions. They judged that, in combination with improvements in the supply situation, these developments were helping to bring inflation back to 2 percent over time. Most partic-ipants noted that, as indicated in their submissions to the SEP, they expected the Committee’s restrictive policy stance to continue to soften household and business spending, helping to promote further reductions in in-flation over the next few years.
In their submitted projections, almost all participants in-dicated that, reflecting the improvements in their inflation outlooks, their baseline projections implied that a lower target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate by the end of 2024. Participants also noted, however, that their outlooks were associated with an un-usually elevated degree of uncertainty and that it was possible that the economy could evolve in a manner that would make further increases in the target range appro-priate. Several also observed that circumstances might warrant keeping the target range at its current value for longer than they currently anticipated. Participants gen-erally stressed the importance of maintaining a careful and data-dependent approach to making monetary pol-icy decisions and reaffirmed that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a restrictive stance for some time until inflation was clearly moving down sustainably to-ward the Committee’s objective.
Participants discussed several risk-management considerations that could bear on future policy decisions. Par-ticipants saw upside risks to inflation as having dimin-ished but noted that inflation was still well above the Committee’s longer-run goal and that a risk remained that progress toward price stability would stall. A num-ber of participants highlighted the uncertainty associated with how long a restrictive monetary policy stance would need to be maintained, and pointed to the downside risks to the economy that would be associated with an overly restrictive stance. A few suggested that the Com-mittee potentially could face a tradeoff between its dual-mandate goals in the period ahead.
Participants observed that the continuing process of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was an important part of the Committee’s overall ap-proach to achieving its macroeconomic objectives and that balance sheet runoff had so far proceeded smoothly. Several participants noted that, amid the ongoing bal-ance sheet normalization, there had been a further de-cline over the intermeeting period in use of the ON RRP facility and that this reduced usage largely reflected port-folio shifts by money market mutual funds toward higher-yielding investments, including Treasury bills and private-market repo. Several participants remarked that the Committee’s balance sheet plans indicated that it would slow and then stop the decline in the size of the balance sheet when reserve balances are somewhat above the level judged consistent with ample reserves. These participants suggested that it would be appropri-ate for the Committee to begin to discuss the technical factors that would guide a decision to slow the pace of runoff well before such a decision was reached in order to provide appropriate advance notice to the public.
Committee Policy Actions
In their discussions of monetary policy for this meeting, members agreed that recent indicators suggested that growth of economic activity had slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains had moderated since earlier in the year but remained strong, and the unem-ployment rate had remained low. Inflation had eased over the past year but remained elevated.
Members concurred that the U.S. banking system was sound and resilient. They also agreed that tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses were likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and in-flation but that the extent of these effects was uncertain. Members agreed that they remained highly attentive to inflation risks.
In support of the Committee’s objective to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run, members agreed to maintain the tar-get range for the federal funds rate at 5¼ to 5½ percent. They also agreed that they would continue to assess ad-ditional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of any additional pol-icy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, members concurred that they would take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects eco-nomic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, members agreed to continue to reduce the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury se-curities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. All members affirmed their strong commitment to returning inflation to their 2 percent objective.
Members agreed that, in assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, they would continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. They would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. Mem-bers also agreed that their assessments would take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and in-flation expectations, and financial and international de-velopments.
Members agreed that their postmeeting statement should acknowledge the slowing of economic activity from its strong pace in the third quarter as well as the fact that inflation had eased over the past year but remained elevated. Members also agreed to modify the sentence in their postmeeting statement discussing the considerations relevant for future policy actions to indi-cate that the Committee would determine “the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time.” Members gen-erally viewed the addition of the word “any” to this sen-tence as appropriately relaying their judgment that the target range for the federal funds rate was likely now at or near its peak for this policy tightening cycle while leaving open the possibility of further increases in the target range if these were warranted by the totality of the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive, for release at 2:00 p.m.:
“Effective December 14, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:
• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 5¼ to 5½ percent. • Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 5.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion. • Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 5.3 percent and with a per-counter-party limit of $160 billion per day. • Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap. • Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed se-curities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month. • Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons. •Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve’s agency MBS transactions.”
The vote also encompassed approval of the statement below for release at 2:00 p.m.:
“Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. In-flation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5¼ to 5½ percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implica-tions for monetary policy. In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects eco-nomic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Com-mittee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, in-cluding readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.”
Voting for this action: Jerome H. Powell, John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Lisa D. Cook, Austan D. Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Philip N. Jefferson, Neel Kashkari, Adriana D. Kugler, Lorie K. Logan, and Christopher J. Waller.
Voting against this action: None.
Consistent with the Committee’s decision to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 5.4 percent, effective December 14, 2023. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 5.5 per-cent, effective December 14, 2023.
It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday–Wednesday, January 30–31, 2024. The meeting adjourned at 10:15 a.m. on Decem-ber 13, 2023.
Notation Vote
By notation vote completed on November 20, 2023, the Committee unanimously approved the minutes of the Committee meeting held on October 31–November 1, 2023.
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청룡의 해가 밝았고, 새해엔 주요회사의 신년사를 읽어봅니다.
올해는 미연준에서 금리 인하에 대한 여지를 주었기 때문에
한국은 어떤 방식의 태도를 취할지 궁금하여 한국은행 이창용 총재님의 신년사를 가져왔습니다.
맨앞에 요약본을 보여드리고, 전문을 이어서 보여드릴게요.
[한국은행 이창용 총재 신년사 요약본]
1. 지난해 주요국들의 금리인상, 미국 실리콘밸리 은행 사태, 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁 등 대외여건의 불확실성 속에서 한국은행은 최우선으로 물가안정을 생각하여 통화정책을 운영하였음.
2. 우리 경제는 수출을 중심으로 성장세가 회복되고 물가 오름세가 둔화 추세를 지속하는 등 긍정적인 모습을 보이기 시작.
3. 올해 세계 경제는 통화긴축 지속의 여파로 성장세가 약화되는 가운데 글로벌 인플레이션은 둔화 흐름을 이어갈 것으로 예상되며 외부여건의 불확실성이 높은 상황.
4. IT 부문의 회복·상승 사이클이 통상 2년 이상 지속되었다는 점에서, 수출 중심의 경기 회복세가 이어져 올해와 내년 경제성장률은 2.1% 및 2.3%까지 개선될 것으로 전망.
5. 그러나 IT 제조업 제외한 성장률은 1.7% 예상.
6. 물가상승률은 점차 2%에 근접해갈것으로 전망되나 시기에 관해서는 불확실성이 남아 있는 상황.
7. 올해는 나라별로 정책이 차별화될 것으로 전망되는 만큼 한국은행도 우리 내부 여건에 더 큰 비중을 두고 정책을 결정할 것.
8. 올해 한국은행은 물가안정을 최우선으로 추구할 것.
9. 국내 부동산 PF를 중심으로 일부 위험신호가 감지되고 있으며 신용위험이 확대되지 않도록 주의해야함. (정부 및 유관기관과 협력하여 부동산PF 문제 정리할 것.)
10. 경제전망 경로를 반기에서 분기 단위로 세분화하여 발표하도록 하겠음.
11. 한국은행 과제 : 과거 부동사 가격 급등 및 PF부실화 제도적 보완책, 디지털시대의 뱅크런 대응책, 초고령사회 진입 대응을 위한 경제 체질 개선, 디지털화폐 도입방안의 모색
[ 전 문 ]
한국은행 임직원 여러분!
오늘은 2024년 새해 첫 업무를 시작하는 날입니다. 먼저 지난 한 해 각자의 자리에서 최선을 다해주신 임직원 여러분과 통화정책을 이끌어 주신 금통위원님들께 감사의 마음을 전합니다. 더불어 우리 직원들이 직장에서 업무에 전념할 수 있도록 물심양면으로 도와주시는 가족분들께도 깊은 감사의 말씀을 드립니다. 푸른 용의 해인 갑진년(甲辰年) 새해를 맞아 각자 염원하는 바를 모두 이루시는, 용처럼 비상하는 한 해가 되기를 기원합니다.
지난해는 급변하는 안팎의 여건에 대응하여 보다 나은 정책과 해법을 마련하는 데 분주했던 한 해였습니다. 인플레이션을 잡기 위한 주요국 중앙은행들의 가파른 금리인상에 이어 미국 실리콘밸리 은행 사태, 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁 등으로 경계의 끈을 한시도 늦출 수 없는 긴장된 순간의 연속이었습니다. 이처럼 높아진 대외여건의 불확실성 속에서 한국은행은 최우선으로 물가안정을 도모하는 가운데 금융안정 측면의 리스크를 면밀히 점검하며 통화정책을 운영하였습니다. 기준금리를 3.5%의 긴축적인 수준으로 유지하고, 새마을금고 예금인출 사태 등 금융·외환시장 불안에는 시장 안정화 조치를 통해 적극 대처하였습니다.
다행히 최근 우리 경제는 수출을 중심으로 성장세가 회복되고 물가 오름세가 둔화 추세를 지속하는 등 긍정적인 모습을 보이기 시작했습니다. 주요 외신에서도 물가, 고용 등 우리나라 경제지표의 안정적인 흐름을 높이 평가하고 있습니다. 어려운 여건 속에서도 국민들께서 고통을 함께 분담해주신 덕분이 아닌가 생각합니다.
올해 세계 경제는 통화긴축 지속의 여파로 성장세가 약화되는 가운데 글로벌 인플레이션은 둔화 흐름을 이어갈 것으로 예상됩니다. 이와 더불어 세계 교역의 분절화, 중동·동유럽 지역의 지정학적 리스크, 주요국의 선거 결과에 따른 국제 정세의 급변 가능성 등 외부여건의 불확실성이 높은 상황입니다. 지난해 IMF는 향후 5년간의 세계경제 성장률을 연평균 3%대 초반으로 전망하였습니다. 이는 1990년 이래 가장 낮은 수준의 전망으로 우리 경제의 대외여건이 결코 녹록지 않음을 말해줍니다.
이러한 가운데서도 그간 어려움을 겪었던 반도체 업황이 점차 되살아나고 있는 점은 반가운 소식이 아닐 수 없습니다. IT 부문의 회복·상승 사이클이 통상 2년 이상 지속되었다는 점에서, 수출 중심의 경기 회복세가 이어져 올해와 내년 경제성장률은 2.1% 및 2.3%까지 개선될 것으로 전망됩니다. 올해 주요국의 경기둔화가 점쳐지고 있는 상황에서 우리 경제가 완만하게나마 나아지는 모습을 보이는 점은 고무적이라 할 수 있겠습니다. 하지만 IT 제조업을 제외하고 본다면 올해 성장률이 1.7% 수준에 그칠 것으로 예상되어 국민들께서 경기회복의 온기를 충분히 느끼기는 쉽지 않을 수 있습니다. 또한 물가상승률이 점차 2%에 근접해갈 것으로 전망됩니다만 목표수준에 안착되는 시기와 관련해서는 불확실성이 남아 있는 상황입니다. 높아진 물가수준과 고금리 장기화의 영향을 크게 받는 취약계층의 어려움이 특히 염려되는 이유입니다.
임직원 여러분!
대부분의 중앙은행들이 고물가에 대응해 한 방향으로 달려온 지난해와 달리, 올해는 주요국의 금리인상 사이클이 마무리되는 가운데 나라별로 정책이 차별화될 것으로 전망되고 있습니다. 그런 만큼, 한국은행도 우리 내부 여건에 더 큰 비중을 두고 정책을 결정할 여지가 커졌고, 우리가 어떻게 해나가느냐에 따라 올해 경제상황은 물론 지난해 정책운용 성과에 대한 최종 평가도 달라질 것입니다.
이러한 국내외 경제여건의 변화를 고려할 때 올해 한국은행은 물가안정을 최우선으로 추구하면서도 경기회복과 금융안정에 필요한 최적의 정교한 정책조합을 찾아나가야 합니다. 무엇보다도 장기간 이어지고 있는 인플레이션과의 싸움을 잘 마무리하는 것이 중요합니다. 등산에서 정상 직전의 오르막길 또는 마라톤에서의 마지막 구간, 즉 라스트 마일(last mile)이 가장 어렵다고 합니다. 물가상승세의 둔화 흐름이 이어지겠지만 원자재가격 추이의 불확실성과 누적된 비용인상 압력 등의 영향으로 인플레이션 둔화 속도가 예상보다 더딜 수 있습니다. 하지만, 우리는 반드시 물가안정을 이루어내야 하고 또 그렇게 할 것입니다. 대내외 정책여건의 불확실성 요인을 세심히 살피면서 물가를 목표수준으로 안착시키기 위한 통화긴축 기조의 지속기간과 최적 금리경로를 판단해 나갈 것입니다.
긴축기조가 지속됨에 따라 나타날 수 있는 금융불안 가능성에 철저히 대비할 필요가 있습니다. 주요 선진국에서는 상업용 부동산 대출의 부실화 징후가 나타나고 있으며, 국내에서도 부동산 PF를 중심으로 일부 위험신호가 감지되고 있습니다. 우리 경제의 약한 고리를 중심으로 신용위험이 확대되지 않도록 각별히 주의해야 합니다. 아울러 유사시 금융시스템 내의 유동성 안전판 강화를 위해 한국은행 대출의 적격담보 범위를 금융기관이 보유한 대출채권까지 확대하기로 한 만큼, 세부 시행 방안 등 관련 제도를 조속히 마련해 나가야 할 것입니다. 정부 및 유관기관과의 협력을 통해 부동산PF의 질서있는 정리 방안을 마련하고 시행하는 과정에도 힘을 보태겠습니다.
정교한 정책조합을 성공시키려면 커뮤니케이션 강화에도 힘써야 합니다. 이를 위해 경제전망 경로를 그간의 반기에서 분기 단위로 세분화하여 하반기 중 발표하도록 하겠습니다. 경제전망을 상세히 공표할 경우 대내외 여건의 불확실성이 높아질수록 전망 오차와 관련한 우려의 목소리가 커질 수 있습니다. 그러나 경제주체들이 중앙은행 전망의 전제조건을 보다 잘 이해하게 됨으로써 여건 변화에 따른 정책 변화 방향을 체계적으로 예측할 수 있게 되는 장점도 있습니다. 통화정책의 유효성 제고를 위해서는 이러한 경제주체들의 올바른 기대형성이 무엇보다 중요한 만큼 과감하게 한 걸음 더 나아가는 것이 바람직하다고 판단하였습니다. 이와 함께 금융통화위원회에서 논의된 분석자료와 조사연구 자료들도 ｢한국은행 금융·경제 스냅샷｣ 또는 동영상 자료 등의 시각화 컨텐츠를 통해 국민들께 이해하기 쉽게 전달되도록 할 것입니다.
임직원 여러분!
아시는 바와 같이, 우리 경제는 명실상부한 선진 대열에 들어서 있습니다. 경제가 어려워질 때마다 재정의 확대와 저금리에 기반한 부채 증대에 의존하여 임기응변식으로 성장을 도모하는 시대는 지났습니다. 눈앞에 두고 있는 초고령사회 진입에 대응하기 위한 재정수요가 확대일로에 있으며 그간 가파르게 증가한 가계부채 규모는 성장잠재력을 훼손하는 수준에 이르렀습니다. 다행히 최근에는 재정적자 규모가 축소되고 가계부채 증가세가 둔화되는 모습을 보이고 있지만, 우리 경제의 지속 가능한 성장을 저해하는 다양한 요인들이 여전히 산재해 있습니다. 그간 인플레이션에 대응하느라 충분히 살피지 못했던 여러 구조적 문제들에 대한 해결방안을 찾는 데 한국은행이 더 힘써야 할 것입니다.
과거 부동산 가격 급등 및 PF 부실화의 구조적 원인과 제도적 보완책은 무엇인지, 향후 디지털 시대의 뱅크런에 대응한 현재의 규제 및 감독 체계는 충분한지, 주의 깊게 살펴보아야 합니다. 또한 비은행 금융기관의 중요도를 고려해 한국은행의 유동성 지원 장치는 더 개선할 사항은 없는지, 높아진 대외건전성에 걸맞게 환율의 대외충격 흡수 기능이 충분히 활용되고 있는지 등에 대해서도 깊이 고민해야 합니다. 이는 한국은행 혼자서만 할 수 있는 일이 아닙니다. 금융당국과 함께 다 같이 노력해야만 합니다. 나아가 보다 중장기적인 시계에서의 구조개혁 또한 지속되어야만 합니다. 저출산·고령화와 수도권 집중 및 지방소멸을 어떻게 극복할지, 그리고 글로벌 공급망 재편, 기후위기 등 과거와 다른 환경에서 우리 경제의 체질 개선은 어떤 방향으로 이루어져야 하는지, 그 방식은 어떠해야 할지, 정부와 머리를 맞대고 실효성 있는 대안을 제시할 수 있어야 하겠습니다.
실제 지난해 여러분이 작성한 보고서들이 다양한 부문에 대한 정책 제안을 통해 사회적 반향을 일으킨 바 있어 매우 자랑스럽게 생각합니다. 초저출산 현상이 가져온 극단적 인구구조 문제, 장기구조적 관점에서 진단한 가계부채 현황, 지역별 주요 제조업의 생산 및 공급망, 거점도시 중심의 균형발전 등에 대한 보고서들이 그 예라 할 수 있습니다. 주요 현안에 대한 여러 블로그(blog)들도 많은 주목을 받았습니다. 앞으로도 한국은행은 깊이 있는 조사연구를 바탕으로 우리 경제의 구조 개선을 위한 정책대안을 적극적으로 제시해 나가야 할 것입니다.
이와 함께 가속화되고 있는 금융·경제의 디지털 전환에 대한 대응을 한층 강화하고자 합니다. 금년에는 바람직한 디지털화폐(CBDC) 도입방안의 모색을 위해, 약 10만명의 국민들이 실거래에 참여하는 파일럿 테스트를 실시할 계획입니다. 이를 통해 축적된 경험은 전 세계 중앙은행들이 참고할 수 있는 선례가 되고, 디지털 강국으로서 대한민국의 위상을 높일 것으로 기대됩니다. AI 기술을 활용하여 업무 프로세스를 효율화하고 생산성을 높여나가는 노력도 이어나갈 것입니다. 또한 우리 외환시장을 보다 개방적이고 경쟁적으로 만들기 위해 필요한 조치들을 정부와 함께 차질없이 이행해 나가겠습니다.
한국은행 임직원 여러분!
새해 최적의 정책운용을 위해 중점적으로 추진해야 할 과제와 함께 최고 수준의 싱크탱크로서의 역할에 대해 얘기했습니다만, 이 모든 것들은 우리 개개인의 역량이 뒷받침되지 않는다면 결코 가능하지 않을 것입니다. 그간 경영인사 혁신방안의 성공적 도입과 더불어 임직원 여러분의 끊임없는 노력으로 많은 것들이 변화하고 있음을 느낍니다. 외부에서도 긍정적인 평가가 이어지고 있습니다. 모두 여러분이 애써준 결과이며, 앞으로도 한 단계 더 발전하기 위해 절차탁마(切磋琢磨)의 정신으로 계속하여 노력해주시길 당부드립니다. 저 또한 그간 우리 직원들의 전문성에 걸맞은 처우 개선을 통해 한국은행의 경쟁력을 높일 수 있도록 힘써왔습니다. 앞으로도 이러한 노력을 계속해 나가겠습니다.
새해 우리 경제는 더 나은 미래를 향한 항해를 계속할 것입니다. 때로 예기치 않은 풍랑을 만날 수도 있습니다. 우선 순간순간 맞닥뜨린 파고(波高)를 슬기롭게 헤쳐나가는 것이 중요하겠습니다만, 크고 작은 파도만을 경계하다 정작 우리 경제가 나아가야 할 방향을 잃어버리는 우를 범해서는 안됩니다. 한국은행이 보다 긴 안목과 통찰력을 가지고 미래 비전을 제시하는 든든한 나침반이 되도록 다 같이 노력해야 하겠습니다.
마지막으로 한결같은 자세로 각자의 소임에 최선을 다하고 계신 직원 여러분께 다시 한번 깊은 감사의 말씀을 드립니다. 특히 지난해 새 일터로 이전해 오면서 시설 운영과 안전 관리 등의 업무를 완벽하게 수행해 주신 서무직원 및 청경분들, 그리고 늘 쾌적하고 청결한 업무환경을 위해 애써주시는 미화원 여러분께 감사드립니다. 아울러 민원 응대, 화폐 관리 등 잘 드러나지 않는 곳에서 묵묵히 현업업무를 수행해 주고 계신 여러분께도 치하의 말씀을 드립니다.
금년 한 해도 우리 경제를 위해 늘 한 걸음 앞장서 나아가는 한국은행이 되기를 희망하며, 새해를 맞아 여러분의 가정에 건강과 만복(萬福)이 깃들기를 기원합니다. 감사합니다.
